Startup Business Analyst Market Opportunity

1---
2name: startup-business-analyst-market-opportunity
3description: Generate comprehensive market opportunity analysis with TAM/SAM/SOM
4  calculations
5allowed-tools: Read Write Edit Glob Grep Bash WebSearch WebFetch
6---
7 
8# Market Opportunity Analysis
9 
10Generate a comprehensive market opportunity analysis for a startup, including Total Addressable Market (TAM), Serviceable Available Market (SAM), and Serviceable Obtainable Market (SOM) calculations using both bottom-up and top-down methodologies.
11 
12## Use this skill when
13 
14- Working on market opportunity analysis tasks or workflows
15- Needing guidance, best practices, or checklists for market opportunity analysis
16 
17## Do not use this skill when
18 
19- The task is unrelated to market opportunity analysis
20- You need a different domain or tool outside this scope
21 
22## Instructions
23 
24- Clarify goals, constraints, and required inputs.
25- Apply relevant best practices and validate outcomes.
26- Provide actionable steps and verification.
27- If detailed examples are required, open `resources/implementation-playbook.md`.
28 
29## What This Command Does
30 
31This command guides through an interactive market sizing process to:
321. Define the target market and customer segments
332. Gather relevant market data
343. Calculate TAM using bottom-up methodology
354. Validate with top-down analysis
365. Narrow to SAM with appropriate filters
376. Estimate realistic SOM (3-5 year opportunity)
387. Present findings in a formatted report
39 
40## Instructions for Claude
41 
42When this command is invoked, follow these steps:
43 
44### Step 1: Gather Context
45 
46Ask the user for essential information:
47- **Product/Service Description:** What problem is being solved?
48- **Target Customers:** Who is the ideal customer? (industry, size, geography)
49- **Business Model:** How does pricing work? (subscription, transaction, etc.)
50- **Stage:** What stage is the company? (pre-launch, seed, Series A)
51- **Geography:** Initial target market (US, North America, Global)
52 
53### Step 2: Activate market-sizing-analysis Skill
54 
55The market-sizing-analysis skill provides comprehensive methodologies. Reference it for:
56- Bottom-up calculation frameworks
57- Top-down validation approaches
58- Industry-specific templates
59- Data source recommendations
60 
61### Step 3: Conduct Bottom-Up Analysis
62 
63**For B2B/SaaS:**
641. Define customer segments (company size, industry, use case)
652. Estimate number of companies in each segment
663. Determine average contract value (ACV) per segment
674. Calculate TAM: Σ (Segment Size × ACV)
68 
69**For Consumer/Marketplace:**
701. Define target user demographics
712. Estimate total addressable users
723. Determine average revenue per user (ARPU)
734. Calculate TAM: Total Users × ARPU × Frequency
74 
75**For Transactions/E-commerce:**
761. Estimate total transaction volume (GMV)
772. Determine take rate or margin
783. Calculate TAM: Total GMV × Take Rate
79 
80### Step 4: Gather Market Data
81 
82Use available tools to research:
83- **WebSearch:** Find industry reports, market size estimates, public company data
84- **Cite all sources** with URLs and publication dates
85- **Document assumptions** clearly
86 
87Recommended data sources (from skill):
88- Government data (Census, BLS)
89- Industry reports (Gartner, Forrester, Statista)
90- Public company filings (10-K reports)
91- Trade associations
92- Academic research
93 
94### Step 5: Top-Down Validation
95 
96Validate bottom-up calculation:
971. Find total market category size from research
982. Apply geographic filters
993. Apply segment/product filters
1004. Compare to bottom-up TAM (should be within 30%)
101 
102If variance > 30%, investigate and explain differences.
103 
104### Step 6: Calculate SAM
105 
106Apply realistic filters to narrow TAM:
107- **Geographic:** Regions actually serviceable
108- **Product Capability:** Features needed to serve
109- **Market Readiness:** Customers ready to adopt
110- **Addressable Switching:** Can reach and convert
111 
112Formula:
113```
114SAM = TAM × Geographic % × Product Fit % × Market Readiness %
115```
116 
117### Step 7: Estimate SOM
118 
119Calculate realistic obtainable market share:
120 
121**Conservative Approach (Recommended):**
122- Year 3: 2-3% of SAM
123- Year 5: 4-6% of SAM
124 
125**Consider:**
126- Competitive intensity
127- Available resources (funding, team)
128- Go-to-market effectiveness
129- Differentiation strength
130 
131### Step 8: Create Market Sizing Report
132 
133Generate a comprehensive markdown report with:
134 
135**Section 1: Executive Summary**
136- Market opportunity in one paragraph
137- TAM/SAM/SOM headline numbers
138 
139**Section 2: Market Definition**
140- Problem being solved
141- Target customer profile
142- Geographic scope
143- Time horizon
144 
145**Section 3: Bottom-Up Analysis**
146- Customer segment breakdown
147- Segment sizing with sources
148- TAM calculation with formula
149- Assumptions documented
150 
151**Section 4: Top-Down Validation**
152- Industry category and size
153- Filter application
154- Validated TAM
155- Comparison to bottom-up
156 
157**Section 5: SAM Calculation**
158- Filters applied with rationale
159- SAM formula and result
160- Segment-level breakdown
161 
162**Section 6: SOM Projection**
163- Market share assumptions
164- Year 3 and Year 5 estimates
165- Customer count implications
166- Revenue projections
167 
168**Section 7: Market Growth**
169- Industry growth rate (CAGR)
170- Key growth drivers
171- 5-year market evolution
172 
173**Section 8: Validation and Sanity Checks**
174- Public company comparisons
175- Customer count validation
176- Competitive context
177 
178**Section 9: Investment Thesis**
179- Market opportunity assessment
180- Key positives and risks
181- Venture-scale potential
182- Next steps
183 
184### Step 9: Save Report
185 
186Offer to save the report as a markdown file:
187- Suggest filename: `market-opportunity-analysis-YYYY-MM-DD.md`
188- Use Write tool to create file
189- Confirm file location with user
190 
191## Tips for Best Results
192 
193**Do:**
194- Start with bottom-up (most credible)
195- Always triangulate with top-down
196- Cite all data sources
197- Document every assumption
198- Be conservative on SOM
199- Compare to public company benchmarks
200- Explain any data gaps or limitations
201 
202**Don't:**
203- Rely solely on top-down
204- Cherry-pick optimistic data
205- Claim >10% SOM without strong justification
206- Mix methodologies inappropriately
207- Ignore competitive context
208- Skip validation steps
209 
210## Example Usage
211 
212```
213User: /market-opportunity
214 
215Claude: I'll help you create a comprehensive market opportunity analysis. Let me start by gathering some context.
216 
217What product or service are you analyzing?
218→ "AI-powered email marketing for e-commerce companies"
219 
220Who are your target customers?
221→ "E-commerce companies with $1M+ annual revenue in North America"
222 
223What's your pricing model?
224→ "Subscription: $50-500/month based on email volume, average $300/month"
225 
226[Claude proceeds with analysis, gathering data, calculating TAM/SAM/SOM, and generating report]
227```
228 
229## Integration with Other Commands
230 
231This command pairs well with:
232- `/financial-projections` - Use SOM to build revenue model
233- `/business-case` - Include market sizing in business case
234 
235## Notes
236 
237- Market sizing typically takes 30-60 minutes for thorough analysis
238- Quality depends on data availability - explain limitations
239- Update annually as market evolves
240- Conservative estimates build credibility with investors
241