Startup Business Analyst Financial Projections

1---
2name: startup-business-analyst-financial-projections
3description: Create detailed 3-5 year financial model with revenue, costs, cash
4  flow, and scenarios
5allowed-tools: Read Write Edit Glob Grep Bash WebSearch WebFetch
6---
7 
8# Financial Projections
9 
10Create a comprehensive 3-5 year financial model with revenue projections, cost structure, headcount planning, cash flow analysis, and three-scenario modeling (conservative, base, optimistic) for startup financial planning and fundraising.
11 
12## Use this skill when
13 
14- Working on financial projections tasks or workflows
15- Needing guidance, best practices, or checklists for financial projections
16 
17## Do not use this skill when
18 
19- The task is unrelated to financial projections
20- You need a different domain or tool outside this scope
21 
22## Instructions
23 
24- Clarify goals, constraints, and required inputs.
25- Apply relevant best practices and validate outcomes.
26- Provide actionable steps and verification.
27- If detailed examples are required, open `resources/implementation-playbook.md`.
28 
29## What This Command Does
30 
31This command builds a complete financial model including:
321. Cohort-based revenue projections
332. Detailed cost structure (COGS, S&M, R&D, G&A)
343. Headcount planning by role
354. Monthly cash flow analysis
365. Key metrics (CAC, LTV, burn rate, runway)
376. Three-scenario analysis
38 
39## Instructions for Claude
40 
41When this command is invoked, follow these steps:
42 
43### Step 1: Gather Model Inputs
44 
45Ask the user for essential information:
46 
47**Business Model:**
48- Revenue model (SaaS, marketplace, transaction, etc.)
49- Pricing structure (tiers, average price)
50- Target customer segments
51 
52**Starting Point:**
53- Current MRR/ARR (if any)
54- Current customer count
55- Current team size
56- Current cash balance
57 
58**Growth Assumptions:**
59- Expected monthly customer acquisition
60- Customer retention/churn rate
61- Average contract value (ACV)
62- Sales cycle length
63 
64**Cost Assumptions:**
65- Gross margin or COGS %
66- S&M budget or CAC target
67- Current burn rate (if applicable)
68 
69**Funding:**
70- Planned fundraising (amount, timing)
71- Pre/post-money valuation
72 
73### Step 2: Activate startup-financial-modeling Skill
74 
75The startup-financial-modeling skill provides frameworks. Reference it for:
76- Revenue modeling approaches
77- Cost structure templates
78- Headcount planning guidance
79- Scenario analysis methods
80 
81### Step 3: Build Revenue Model
82 
83**Use Cohort-Based Approach:**
84 
85For each month, track:
861. New customers acquired
872. Existing customers retained (apply churn)
883. Revenue per cohort (customers × ARPU)
894. Expansion revenue (upsells)
90 
91**Formula:**
92```
93MRR (Month N) = Σ across all cohorts:
94  (Cohort Size × Retention Rate × ARPU) + Expansion
95```
96 
97**Project:**
98- Monthly detail for Year 1-2
99- Quarterly detail for Year 3
100- Annual for Years 4-5
101 
102### Step 4: Model Cost Structure
103 
104Break down operating expenses:
105 
106**1. Cost of Goods Sold (COGS)**
107- Hosting/infrastructure (% of revenue or fixed)
108- Payment processing (% of revenue)
109- Variable customer support
110- Third-party services
111 
112Target gross margin:
113- SaaS: 75-85%
114- Marketplace: 60-70%
115- E-commerce: 40-60%
116 
117**2. Sales & Marketing (S&M)**
118- Sales team compensation
119- Marketing programs
120- Tools and software
121- Target: 40-60% of revenue (early stage)
122 
123**3. Research & Development (R&D)**
124- Engineering team
125- Product management
126- Design
127- Target: 30-40% of revenue
128 
129**4. General & Administrative (G&A)**
130- Executive team
131- Finance, legal, HR
132- Office and facilities
133- Target: 15-25% of revenue
134 
135### Step 5: Plan Headcount
136 
137Create role-by-role hiring plan:
138 
139**Reference team-composition-analysis skill for:**
140- Roles by stage
141- Compensation benchmarks
142- Hiring velocity assumptions
143 
144**For each role:**
145- Title and department
146- Start date (month/quarter)
147- Base salary
148- Fully-loaded cost (salary × 1.3-1.4)
149- Equity grant
150 
151**Track departmental ratios:**
152- Engineering: 40-50% of team
153- Sales & Marketing: 25-35%
154- G&A: 10-15%
155- Product/CS: 10-15%
156 
157### Step 6: Calculate Cash Flow
158 
159Monthly cash flow projection:
160 
161```
162Beginning Cash Balance
163+ Cash Collected (revenue, consider payment terms)
164- Operating Expenses
165- CapEx
166= Ending Cash Balance
167 
168Monthly Burn = Revenue - Expenses (if negative)
169Runway = Cash Balance / Monthly Burn Rate
170```
171 
172**Include Funding Events:**
173- Timing of raises
174- Amount raised
175- Use of proceeds
176- Impact on cash balance
177 
178### Step 7: Compute Key Metrics
179 
180Calculate monthly/quarterly:
181 
182**Unit Economics:**
183- CAC (S&M spend / new customers)
184- LTV (ARPU × margin% / churn rate)
185- LTV:CAC ratio (target > 3.0)
186- CAC payback period (target < 18 months)
187 
188**Efficiency Metrics:**
189- Burn multiple (net burn / net new ARR) - target < 2.0
190- Magic number (net new ARR / S&M spend) - target > 0.5
191- Rule of 40 (growth% + margin%) - target > 40%
192 
193**Cash Metrics:**
194- Monthly burn rate
195- Runway in months
196- Cash efficiency
197 
198### Step 8: Create Three Scenarios
199 
200Build conservative, base, and optimistic projections:
201 
202**Conservative (P10):**
203- New customers: -30% vs. base
204- Churn: +20% vs. base
205- Pricing: -15% vs. base
206- CAC: +25% vs. base
207 
208**Base (P50):**
209- Most likely assumptions
210- Primary planning scenario
211 
212**Optimistic (P90):**
213- New customers: +30% vs. base
214- Churn: -20% vs. base
215- Pricing: +15% vs. base
216- CAC: -25% vs. base
217 
218### Step 9: Generate Financial Model Report
219 
220Create comprehensive markdown report with tables:
221 
222**Section 1: Executive Summary**
223- 3-5 year financial snapshot
224- Key metrics at scale
225- Funding requirements
226 
227**Section 2: Model Assumptions**
228- Revenue model and pricing
229- Growth assumptions
230- Cost structure assumptions
231- Headcount plan summary
232 
233**Section 3: Revenue Projections**
234Monthly/quarterly tables showing:
235```
236| Month | New Customers | Total Customers | MRR | ARR | Growth % |
237|-------|---------------|-----------------|-----|-----|----------|
238```
239 
240**Section 4: Cost Breakdown**
241```
242| Department | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | % Revenue |
243|------------|--------|--------|--------|-----------|
244| COGS       | $X     | $Y     | $Z     | XX%       |
245| S&M        | $X     | $Y     | $Z     | XX%       |
246| R&D        | $X     | $Y     | $Z     | XX%       |
247| G&A        | $X     | $Y     | $Z     | XX%       |
248```
249 
250**Section 5: Headcount Plan**
251```
252| Department | Current | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 |
253|------------|---------|--------|--------|--------|
254| Engineering| X       | Y      | Z      | W      |
255```
256 
257**Section 6: Cash Flow Analysis**
258```
259| Quarter | Revenue | Expenses | Net Burn | Cash Balance | Runway |
260|---------|---------|----------|----------|--------------|--------|
261```
262 
263**Section 7: Key Metrics**
264```
265| Metric | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Target |
266|--------|--------|--------|--------|--------|
267| CAC | $X | $Y | $Z | <$A |
268| LTV | $X | $Y | $Z | >$B |
269| Burn Multiple | X | Y | Z | <2.0 |
270```
271 
272**Section 8: Scenario Analysis**
273```
274| Scenario | Year 3 ARR | Customers | Burn | Runway |
275|----------|------------|-----------|------|--------|
276| Conservative | $Xم | Y | $Z | W mo |
277| Base | $X | Y | $Z | W mo |
278| Optimistic | $X | Y | $Z | W mo |
279```
280 
281**Section 9: Funding Requirements**
282- Amount needed
283- Use of proceeds breakdown
284- Milestones to achieve
285- Expected valuation impact
286 
287**Section 10: Validation**
288- Sanity checks performed
289- Benchmark comparisons
290- Risk factors
291- Assumptions to monitor
292 
293### Step 10: Save Model
294 
295Offer to save as markdown file:
296- Suggest filename: `financial-projections-YYYY-MM-DD.md`
297- Include note that user can convert to Excel/Sheets
298- Provide formulas for key calculations
299 
300## Financial Model Best Practices
301 
302**Do:**
303- Use cohort-based revenue model
304- Include 3 scenarios
305- Show monthly detail (Year 1-2)
306- Calculate key metrics
307- Validate against benchmarks
308- Document all assumptions
309- Show cash flow and runway
310- Include fundraising milestones
311 
312**Don't:**
313- Be overly optimistic on growth
314- Underestimate costs
315- Forget fully-loaded compensation
316- Ignore cash timing
317- Skip scenario analysis
318- Use static headcount
319- Forget to validate
320 
321## Integration with Other Commands
322 
323Pairs well with:
324- `/market-opportunity` - Use SOM for revenue ceiling
325- `/business-case` - Include projections in business case
326 
327## Example Usage
328 
329```
330User: /financial-projections
331 
332Claude: I'll create a comprehensive financial model for your startup. Let me gather the key inputs.
333 
334What's your business model?
335→ "B2B SaaS, subscription-based"
336 
337Current state?
338→ "$50K MRR, 100 customers, 5-person team, $500K cash"
339 
340Growth assumptions?
341→ "Expect 15% MoM growth, 10% monthly churn, $500 ACV"
342 
343[Claude builds complete model with all sections]
344```
345 
346## Notes
347 
348- Model building takes 45-90 minutes
349- Results in comprehensive planning tool
350- Update monthly to track vs. actuals
351- Share with investors and board
352- Use for fundraising decks
353- Basis for budget and hiring decisions
354